OUTLOOK: In 2008-09, the Mountain West Conference experienced all of the highs
and lows that no conference should ever have to endure in such a short span of
time. At one end of the spectrum there were BYU, Utah and New Mexico, all of
which finished 12-4 in league play during the regular season, while San Diego
State dominated non-conference play before being held back to the second tier
of the MWC. The struggles of teams like TCU and Colorado State were extremely
disappointing, but Air Force brought all of that to a new low as the Falcons
finished without a single conference victory in 16 attempts and had only one
road win in 10 tries.
For the academy, 2009-10 doesn't appear to be that much brighter than last
season and the expectations in Colorado appear to be on-par. Bringing back
quite a number of significant parts to the postseason puzzle are the BYU
Cougars who, if all goes according to plan, won't have to go to a series of
tie-breakers to figure out if they have won the regular-season title this time
around. Losing a couple of key ingredients, UNLV shouldn't even have a chance
of contending against BYU, yet the Rebels have several new faces who will make
a difference for the better and keep the program rolling in the right
direction. San Diego State head coach Steve Fisher tends to get his group to
hit the ground running against weaker non-conference foes and defense will
again be a key to his team's success. Both New Mexico and Utah had
considerable turnover on the roster, specifically when it comes to critical
performers who were always the focus of opponents, so it is understandable
that neither program will be sneaking to the top of the league standings
anytime soon. In the case of TCU, the Horned Frogs have not done themselves
any favors with the plans they've made with respect to the early non-
conference schedule and all of those contests, outside of a game against St.
Gregory close to Christmas, could cost the team the confidence they so
desperately need in order to survive in the MWC in 2009-10.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: BYU
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. BYU; 2. UNLV; 3. San Diego State; 4. New Mexico;
5. Utah; 6. Wyoming; 7. TCU; 8. Colorado State; 9. Air Force
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
BYU - First things first with the Cougars, after posting a 25-8 record a
season ago and tying for first place in the Mountain West with a 12-4 mark, it
only makes sense for this group to be picked as the favorite, given that they
have four starters returning to the lineup for the 2009-10 campaign. Granted,
BYU did lose the services of Lee Cummard who was an all-conference performer
and one of the most well-rounded players in the league last season, but that
still leaves the cupboard with plenty of options, specifically Jimmer Fredette
and Jonathan Tavernari. In Fredette the Cougars have a junior who plays much
like Cummard did, putting up points (16.2 ppg), hitting the boards (3.0 rpg)
and distributing the ball (4.1 apg) to competent teammates. Not only a member
of the MWC's Preseason All-Conference Team, Fredette also figures to be one of
the favorites to be named the MWC Player of the Year if all goes well for him
and his Provo-based associates. Tavernari (15.7 ppg), the top returning
rebounder for the group with his 7.2 boards per contest, is someone who is a
tough matchup for most opponents because he is also the most successful three-
point shooter (85-of-223) for the group, which means his inside-outside play
is incredibly tough to combat. Growing strong, all-around performers in the
state of Utah seems to be a running theme, at least it is in Provo because
Jackson Emery and Chris Miles are two more returning starters who are also
well adept at handling almost all aspects of the game. Emery, now a junior,
will have plenty of opportunity to elevate his 7.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg and 3.0 apg
from a year ago as he handles even more of the responsibilities for head coach
Dave Rose. Miles (7.1 ppg) checks in as the interior force with his 6-11
frame, but it would still be nice to see him improve upon his mere 52.2
percent accuracy at the free-throw line, a place that he should be visiting
quite a bit more this season once he begins throwing his weight around.
UNLV - Even though the Runnin' Rebels have lost a good part of their punch
from last year, the squad still figures to finish high in the standings, which
is more a reflection on the rest of the league than it is on the strength of
UNLV basketball at the moment. Of the team's three double-digit scorers from a
year ago, both Wink Adams and Rene Rougeau have departed, the former taking
with him his leadership and spunky play and the latter his hard work in the
paint. What's left is junior guard Tre'Von Willis who is the top returning
scorer for the program after putting up 11.4 ppg for head coach Lon Kruger who
is entering his sixth season in the desert. With even more responsibility as a
leader for the Rebels this season, Willis will have to lead by example, which
means his mere 37.9 percent shooting from the field just won't cut it anymore.
Being more selective with his shots will benefit the entire group as they try
to move beyond being a team that shot just 42.3 percent from the floor as a
unit. If not for the efforts of Rougeau and his 55.9 percent accuracy, the
numbers would look even more disappointing. Although just a freshman last
season, guard Oscar Bellfield still played a critical role for the Rebels and
will have those responsibilities expanded in 2009-10 as he aims to put up
better than 6.2 ppg and get teammates even more involved than he did with
close to three and a half assists per contest a season ago. As one of the
taller players on the team and one of only two seniors, Darris Santee will
have to push himself even more in the paint. A couple of unknowns heading into
the campaign, Matt Shaw is returning from injury that kept him out all last
season and Kentucky transfer Derrick Jasper is finally ready to make it back
to the hardwood following his move to Sin City and microfracture knee surgery
prior to the 2007-08 campaign. Tabbed as the MWC Preseason Newcomer of the
Year, the expectations are clearly through the roof for Jasper already.
SAN DIEGO STATE - Last season, the Aztecs had one of the stronger defenses in
the nation, allowing just 59.6 ppg, and that proved to be a necessity given
that the offense managed just 67.1 ppg over the course of 36 outings. Now,
take away 28.1 ppg from the team's offense, that's what is lost from the
departing Lorrenzo Wade and Kyle Spain, and figure out how head coach Steve
Fisher is going to get along in 2009-10. Somehow coach Fisher is going to make
it happen for SDSU because he has the media and the rest of the coaches in the
league believing that his group will be one to reckon with when it is crunch
time in February. The Aztecs will be hanging much of their hopes on inside
presence Billy White, an honorable mention all-MWC performer a year ago when
he averaged close to nine points and four rebounds per outing. What makes
White such an important piece of the puzzle is that he is the one who settles
into the paint and throws his weight around. White returns as the league
leader in shooting accuracy from the floor, making almost two of every three
field goal attempts, and is also someone who can change the shot selection of
the opposition if he lives up to billing. The other returning starter for the
Aztecs is D.J. Gay who has quite a bit of work ahead of him after shooting a
meager 33.3 percent from the floor, but a respectable 32.8 percent behind the
three-point line. Tim Shelton's play should be expanded this season as he is
one of the more experienced performers for this team, in spite of his
sophomore status. Averaging less than 23 minutes per game a year ago, Shelton
posted close to eight points and five rebounds per contest, shooting better
than 50 percent from the floor as he settled into comfortable space in the
paint. Not to be overlooked is Kawhi Leonard, tabbed as the Preseason Freshman
of the Year in the MWC, a 6-6 forward out of Riverside, California.
NEW MEXICO - Closing in on two full decades of coaching, Steve Alford might
have a battle on his hands to get the Lobos up and running this season. While
the squad does return three former starters, the loss of senior leadership
could hurt the group. Gone are Tony Danridge and Daniel Faris, two players who
combined to score 27 ppg and clear better than 10 rebounds per contest, which
leaves Roman Martinez as the lone senior on the roster. An All-MWC Honorable
Mention last season, Martinez started all but one of the 34 games in which he
appeared and accounted for 10.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per contest. The 6-6
senior has proven he can do a little bit of everything for New Mexico, not
only work the inside to rebound and defend, but also leak out to the perimeter
where he has made good on 41.8 percent of his three-point tries. Knocking down
shots from the outside is something that the Lobos did well on a consistent
basis, converting 38.1 percent of their chances, yet they also permitted
opponents to knock down better than 35 percent beyond the arc as well. Dairese
Gary, the only player to start all 34 games a season ago, often deferred to
his teammates in scoring situations, but now he'll have to be more assertive
and, in addition to being the floor leader in the passing department, also
take on more of a scoring burden in order for this team to survive with so
much youth abound. Although just a sophomore this season, guard Phillip
McDonald is another youngster who will have more added to his plate and will
hopefully boost his own scoring (7.3 ppg) along the way. With so much youth,
UNM is a team that is building for a year or two from now, but still expect
some exciting games out of the bunch.
UTAH - Last season, the Runnin' Utes had one of their better teams in quite
some time, finishing in a tie for first place in the MWC with a 12-4 record
under the direction of head coach Jim Boylen. Unfortunately, the 2009-10
version of the Utah basketball program is just a fraction of last year's
squad, losing a considerable portion of its offense to graduation. Of the four
players who averaged double-digit scoring a season ago, not one of them is
back for another turn in Salt Lake City, and that means the program is on the
verge of rebuilding. Granted, there are three returning starters who could
have a significant impact on the success and/or failure of this team, but the
trio is not comprised of significant pieces from a previous band of players.
Carlon Brown, a junior guard who was an all-MWC Honorable Mention following
last season, started all 34 games for the Utes and led the program with his
112 assists. One of the league's best in terms of assist-to-turnover margin,
Brown also found the time and opportunity to register 9.3 ppg, making him the
top returning scorer for the Utes. Senior guard Luka Drca, a great
complementary performer who did all the little things and filled in the gaps
for the regulars, brings his 7.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg and 3.5 apg to the attack for
2009-10. Like Drca, Kim Tillie was in the lineup primarily as a bridge to get
from one of his outstanding teammates to another, providing a competent
presence on the floor that didn't hurt the Utes. Tillie (3.3 ppg) appeared in
30 games for the group, but played less than 16 minutes per game and during
that time rarely looked to put up points himself, averaging less than three
shots attempts per contest. Again, replacing one of the league's top inside
men (Luke Nevill) and one of the top three-point shooters in the league the
last few seasons (Shaun Green) will not be an easy trick for this group, which
is why expectations are not as high as they have been in the past.
WYOMING - Named the MWC Freshman of the Year following the 2008-09 campaign,
Afam Muojeke earned the praise as he set the league's all-time freshman
scoring record with his 454 points. Part of making that happen had a lot to do
with the youngster playing along with Brandon Ewing who eventually finished
his career with the Cowboys as the second-best scorer in Mountain West
history, only the second player to ever eclipse the 2,000 point plateau. Now
that Ewing has left the building in Laramie, all attention falls on Muojeke
and that means increased pressure and criticism. A sophomore dominated roster
to begin with, Muojeke is going to have to be a man among young men in order
to get this squad started off on the right foot. Head coach Heath Schroyer,
now entering his third season with the Pokes, had a number of strong
performers under his direction a year ago and still Wyoming was sixth in the
conference at 7-9 and was a non-factor in the newly-created CBI in March.
Muojeke not only led all freshmen in scoring with his 13.8 ppg, he was also
the top man on the glass among the group with 5.3 rpg as well, which means he
has the talent and drive to accomplish big things, but now that he will be the
center of attention in Laramie, the guard might have to work even harder just
to generate similar numbers. The only senior on the roster, forward Ryan
Dermody has always watched most of the action from the bench and has had very
little in the way of statistical contribution, but now is the time for the
Colorado transfer to make his presence known, of for no other reason than to
buy some time for the youngsters before they get thrown into the fire. Another
transfer, JayDee Luster from New Mexico State, is now eligible to play and
has many wondering how his high school dominance in San Diego will translate
to the Division I game.
TCU - Since joining the Mountain West, the Horned Frogs have had a hard time
generating positive outcomes on the hardwood, unlike the school's dominance on
the gridiron. Head coach Jim Christian, now in his second year with the Fort
Worth program, has a couple of players who are listed as seniors and are
returning starters, yet both Zvonko Buljan and Edvinas Ruzgas are guys who
started out their college basketball journey some place else and already they
will be heading elsewhere just as quickly. In the case of Buljan, who was
named the MWC Newcomer of the Year after the 2008-09 campaign, he filled up
his stat line with 12.3 ppg, 7.8 rpg and almost two assists per contest. With
almost eight rebounds per game, Buljan is listed as the top returner in that
department in the entire league, but just know that there are several other
players spread across the MWC who will show that they too can hit the glass
with the same sort of energy. In Ruzgas, a starter in all but three of the
team's 31 games a season ago, the Horned Frogs have someone who feels
comfortable letting loose from three-point range, even if that doesn't
necessarily appeared to be his strong suit at times. Ruzgas, who averaged an
even 10 ppg as he played a team-high 31.5 minutes per contest, could stand to
work on some of the smaller parts of his game, such as ball-handling and
defense. Only a part-time starter himself, Ronnie Moss figures to be more of a
central figure for TCU this time around, especially after showing that he can
play the part of a distributor and also come up with 10.2 ppg along the way.
If nothing else, the Horned Frogs need to open up the offense a little bit
more this season in order to give themselves a better chance to at least come
close to finishing around .500 on the campaign.
COLORADO STATE - Even though the Rams had someone like Marcus Walker on their
team last year, there were times when he seemed more of a burden than he might
have been worth. But he wasn't the only Colorado State player who tested the
limits set by head coach Tim Miles in his first two years with the program.
The team itself was just too enigmatic at times, going from a one-point loss
to Minnesota one day to losing by 17 points against St. Martin's just two days
later. The squad won a mere four conference games out of 16 and not once did
they manage to win back-to-back efforts versus the rest of the MWC, and that
was with the likes of Walker, Andre McFarland and Andy Ogide all working in
unison. This season Walker (17.1 ppg) and Willis Gardner (9.6 ppg) have given
way to a cast of nondescript returning letter winners who had very little
impact on the program's results the last several years, even though there are
five seniors and a pair of juniors in that group. Outside of that entourage
are Ogide, McFarland and Jesse Carr, all of who are returning starters for the
Rams. Ogide (10.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg) has shown moments of strong play, as has
McFarland (8.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg) but they were constantly playing in the shadow
cast by Walker, one of the league's top scorers. Ogide brings plenty of
positives to the floor, not the least of which is his 50.0 percent shooting
from the field a year ago, but that still doesn't disguise the fact that he
had almost five times as many turnovers (72) as he did assists (17) over a
span of 770 minutes of playing time. Clearly, once the ball makes it into the
hands of Ogide, it either goes towards the basket or the other way down the
floor. While Ogide handles the play on the inside, McFarland is one who
continues to give the Rams a perimeter presence with his team-best 42.3
percent accuracy beyond the arc. Oddly enough, the forward actually shot just
39.9 percent from the floor overall last season, in spite of his long-distance
success.
AIR FORCE - Every season the story is much the same for the Falcons as they
try to field a competitive basketball squad while dealing with the sort of
restrictions that few programs in the nation have to function under. Head
coach Jeff Reynolds saw a rarity in his second season with the squad as they
failed to win a single league outing, posting just 10 overall wins in 31
opportunities. As usual, points were hard to come by and rebounds were a rare
commodity for the academy. The team was last in the league and ranked 317th
among the 330 program rated at the Division I level with just 58.7 ppg. The
defense was again top-notch with just 62.5 ppg allowed, second-best in the MWC
and 48th in the nation, but still the difference between the two was far too
much to bridge. Even though the Falcons did not rank last in the league in
rebounding margin, that distinction went to UNLV, the team still had issues
hitting the glass and probably will yet again in 2009-10. Losing all three
double-digit scorers, all of whom were also starters for the Falcons, won't
help matters, but at least junior guard Evan Washington (6.8 ppg) is still
lurking somewhere in Clune Arena for the bunch. Washington, the first player
to score at least 200 points in each of his first two seasons since 2000-01,
led the team in rebounding with his 4.5 rpg, a drastically low number that
says a lot about the squad's desperation in the paint. There are plenty of
other returning letter winners for the Falcons, but only a few of them have
significant experience and of those select players, only Grant Parker is
someone that opposing teams should even consider when planning to play the
Falcons this season. Parker (6.0 ppg), who stands at 6-8 and has played at
both forward and center, played in every game for the Falcons last season and
will now be thrust into the starting lineup in order to provide some level of
stability, if that is at all possible with such an inexperienced cast of
characters.
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